I recently received an email about a bill, (AB 1332), introduced to abolish CARB.  Assemblyman Tim Donnelly of the 59th District is the author. The bill is pretty simple, give the California EPA all the powers currently held by CARB and shut down that agency.

From a non emotional, non punitive, purely business side- hey it makes sense. Tough times, call for tough decisions. There are a lot of people still on the unemployment line.  Many of the layoffs focused on reducing redundancy and streamlining operations.  Sounds like a match to me.

Monday, April 25^th at 1:30 the Committee on Natural Resources will hear testimony on this bill.  If I was a betting man, I would not bet on its success to get out of committee.  Not because of the merit of the idea, but more because I have lost faith that our elective officials know how to be leaders. I don’t believe any of them will have the balls to open this line of discussion up for debate.  While this bill is about CARB, a subject close to my business, make it about education a subject close to my heart- we still need to have the debate, because we are going broke. Painful, some not so painful- AB 1332- but painful cuts are going to have to be made and we have created a governing body where no one is willing to sacrifice their lamb because they KNOW others won’t do the same. Instead of doing what is right for this state over the long run, they are worried about the here and now, and their own hide.  To make it worse, the average citizen has already given up and is going to let them get away with it.  

I am sending emails to the committee members anyway.  I believe our elected officials must know we expect results. Results that fix this budget mess and ones that make California the place to do business and a better place to live. Join me.

My Best, Mary

Mary Fleet Manager Wall AB 1332, budget, California Fuel, CARB, economic recovery, Tim Donnelly

Thought this was interesting:

April 13th, 2011

Goldman Sachs rocked oil markets for a second day Tuesday by calling for a nearly $20 fall in Brent crude oil, saying speculators had pushed prices ahead of fundamentals. It was the second warning of a steep market reversal from the long-term commodity bull in as many days. On Monday, Goldman recommended clients close a trade heavily weighted toward U.S. crude futures.

I’ve never been one to say that speculators are the primary driver of oil price fluctuations. Fundamentally, we are at or near the peak in conventional oil production — and that means oil prices will inevitably see higher highs and higher lows (See Science: “Peak oil production may already be here”; HSBC Bank: Oil will be gone in 50 years). And obviously we have a unique amount of unrest across North Africa and the Middle East.

But if the world’s biggest commodity trader commodity trader says speculation is playing a role, one has to listen — especially since Goldman has been predicting higher oil prices for longer than most:

Goldman was one of the first banks to predict $100 oil last decade, in March 2005 when prices were closer to $50 a barrel.

On Tuesday, Goldman chief energy analyst David Greely said the recent run-up in prices, in which Brent rallied as much as 33 percent since the start of the year, looked overdone.

“While prices are back at levels of spring 2008, supply-demand fundamentals are significantly less tight,” Greely said in an April 12 note emailed to clients.

“We believe that the market will experience a substantial correction toward our $105 a barrel near-term target for Brent crude oil in coming months,” he stated.

Oil prices were down sharply, with Brent shedding more than $3 to settle below $121 a barrel. On Monday, prices hit a 2-1/2 year high of $127.02 before reversing….

Goldman analyst Greely said that while unrest in the Middle East and North Africa remains a risk to oil markets, with Libyan exports already largely cut off, the price had been pushed too high by the large number of speculative traders currently long crude oil.

“Both inventories and spare capacity are much higher now and net speculative positions are four times as high as in June 2008,” Greely said.

Exactly how much speculation is driving up oil prices remains contentious:

Goldman estimated in a research note on March 21 that every million barrels of oil held by speculators contributed to an 8 to 10 cent per barrel rise in the oil price.

As unrest spread in North Africa and the Middle East, investors accumulated the equivalent of almost 100 million barrels of oil between mid-February and late March on top of their existing positions, adding approximately $10 to the ‘risk premium’, Goldman said.

Using Goldman’s 8- to 10-cent estimates and data on speculators’ positions from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Reuters calculated that as of last Tuesday, the total speculative premium in U.S. crude oil was between $21.40 and $26.75 a barrel, or about a fifth of last Tuesday’s price. The UK’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) does not publish trader data on Brent.

Goldman Sachs disputed the Reuters calculation on speculative premium.
Source: climateprogress.org

So according to the fundamentals the price per barrel should be around $70 to $90 which would put street prices in the $3.25 unl $3.40 dsl range.

Current price per barrel:

Bobby Fleet Manager Wall diesel, economic recovery, fuel price increases

I read an article recently that explained why our state and nation are in debt and businesses are failing and people are losing jobs.  It did so in plain, simple, non partisan-gasp- English.  Essentially, the people we have elected into office want us to be. They set the budget, they pass the laws that create regulations, these things don’t just magically appear.  We need to elect people that don’t think this is the way to operate. Here is an example of one, do you know any others?  

This article was excerpted from Senator Mimi Walters’ newsletter. Senator Walters is running for Treasurer in November and has earned my vote. Please consider giving her yours… My Best, Mary

www.senate.ca.gov/walters

www.mimiwalters.com

“Stop the Madness”

“California’s jobless rate is the third highest in the nation. Our tax burden is the highest in the nation. Our permitting process is a nightmare. Lawsuits are killing California jobs.

Just when you would think our policy-makers have done enough to drive the state’s economy to the worst in the nation, they’re using the SB 375 implementation to go even further. You may recall that SB 375 was designed to merge regional planning with greenhouse gas (GhG) reduction goals. Even though some of us opposed the bill, we hoped the process would be fair and that the goals of economic growth and emission reduction would be pursued equally. But, the proposed emission reduction target levels issued by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) demonstrate, again, that elitists have taken over the policy–making and are developing massive new regulatory programs to serve their interests.

What are the SB 375 emission reduction targets for Southern California? The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), which is the metropolitan planning organization representing six counties, 190 cities and more than 19 million residents, recommended a realistic target range of 6–8% for 2020 and 3–6% for 2035. Somehow CARB staff disregarded this recommendation and instead proposed completely unrealistic targets that were not even discussed or modeled. The CARB staff recommended raising the levels to 8% for 2020 and 13% for 2035. The problem with SCAG and CARB setting unachievable levels is that extraordinary measures will have to be taken to even come close to achieving these goals.

• Count on reduced employment in Southern California. That’s not a typo – the SCAG scenario assumes a loss of jobs and continuing recession to reduce emissions.
• Dedicate more tax dollars to mass transit. With state and federal governments already running huge deficits, we know whose wallet and purse SCAG and CARB will be grabbing to pay for these new projects. The new funding needs will be in addition to the $40 billion the public will be shelling–out to pay for high speed rail.
• Force people from their cars to biking and walking.

• Gas price increases up to $9.07 a gallon. The analysis indicated that drivers will finally give up their cars if the price of fuel is raised high enough.
• Congestion fees for driving in urban areas.
• Mandatory parking fees to reduce traffic in cities.

Get involved. Call the CARB members. Demand a balanced approach that encourages job creation. Make these decision–makers explain the rationale and the implications of their decision. Stop the madness that is ruining this state.”

Mary Fleet Manager Wall CARB, DeWitt, economic recovery, fleet, Mimi Walters

In the diesel fuel business, it is all about pennies.  Fifteen, twenty years ago a price increase of a penny was a big jump and there were sequences of days when fuel prices did not change.  So, when I saw the video on the link below about the National budget it really struck a chord.  I get pennies and often spend time on the far right side of the decimal but when you get up in the millions, billions and trillions frankly it is harder for me to conceptualize.  I thought this would be a great way for my kids and their friends, not to mention my coworkers, to understand the numbers we are hearing about in the news.

What I did not expect is one of the responses I got back from a friend of mine.  She requested that I not send her any more political emails. Now, I admit, I can get on my dad’s soap box and rant a bit with the occasional unsolicited opinion about the current world order.  What a scary realization- I did not even notice a political bend to the video.  If you click on the link it does show the President pledging to reduce the National budget by $100,000,000. My first response was applause and frankly, so was my last response.  (Again I like pennies, so saving even a $0.0025 is good by me!)  What my friend, who tends to lean a little more left then I do, saw in the first 15 seconds was an attack on the President and that framed her opinion of the video, not the remaining minute, twenty three seconds.

I have watched it a number of times and if it were done 3 years ago and the President at that time was featured in the first 15 seconds, I realize that I would have considered it political too.  This would have been compounded by the fact that my leftward leaning brother-in-law is the one who shared it with me!  It really is just a great learning tool.  I am a huge fan of learning, but realize my genetic skepticism would have made me miss this opportunity too.  What a great lesson for me about education.   Information is good, regardless of who shares it with you.  I still applaud budget cuts wherever we can get them, especially since we just sent in our latest donation to the state and federal government…. don’t even get me started….

 http://www.wimp.com/budgetcuts/

My Best, Mary

Mary Fleet Manager Wall DeWitt, diesel, economic recovery, fleet, fuel price increases, petroleum, policy

Recent news articles have indicated that the current increase in fuel prices is a precursor to economic recovery. Thankfully, fuel prices are nowhere near last year’s peak prices. Remembering what last summer’s run up in fuel prices did to our customer base and our credit line, I am a little more wary. Not afraid to hope, but definitely settling in for a longer road to recovery.

When we did our Budget for 2009, we threw many darts and came up with numbers that looked “reasonable” given the current economic conditions. Reasonable volume numbers, reasonable labor costs, and reasonable expenses. We followed a long standing philosophy of being conservative – inflating expenses and minimizing gross profit. Given what happened the second half of 2008, we were VERY conservative.

Tomorrow, I will sit down with our company managers to review how we are doing this year. Look at key metrics used to judge our business and compare our budget numbers to our actual financials. In preparation for that meeting, I asked John, our controller, to do a mid-year modification on two items: fuel expense and credit card fees.

At first blush, we all feel great. We have over estimated the cost of fuel for this year, leaving us significantly under budget on fuel expense for our 30 trucks. In addition, credit card fees are a large expense at our retail locations and we used our fuel cost estimates as a basis for our budget. The problem is these line items were masking other areas where we are OVER budget. We can all agree, this is not the time to be OVER budget. So John is adjusting the numbers.

In all likelihood, we will miss the goal for May. But, it is important that we do not lose focus on what we set out to do this year:

1. Year to dig in, support our customers through a high level of service;
2. 2009 is a year to watch our expenses;
3. 2009 is a year to count our pennies;
4. 2009 is a year to look for the light at the other side. We are catching glimpses of it, but as the bankruptcy filling of General Motors reminds us, we are not out of the woods yet.

What are you doing this year?

Mary Fleet Manager Wall cost of fuel, credit card fees, economic recovery, Fuel Budgeting, fuel expense, fuel price increases